These polls are just his approval ratings, right (sorry, can’t access the article), not a measure who is willing to vote for him in 2024? Yeah, people don’t approve of you backing Israel when it’s indiscriminately killing civilians and committing war crimes. Surprise, surprise. Doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for Trump over you, Joe, don’t worry.
As always:
The issue isn’t people voting for trump, it’s them not voting.
Because for some people, voting can take hours.
This is intentional because Republicans know depressed turnout is how they win. Unfortunately Dem party leadership just refuses to acknowledge that.
It’s why trump beat Hillary, and can 100% happen again in 2024. The most important job of any candidate is getting votes. And just saying: “What are you going to do, vote Republican instead?” Isn’t going to motivate enough voters to get to the polls.
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans, because that matches their preconceived notion that the democratic party needs to move to the right and gives them an excuse to do so.
Despite the fact that it’s easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
It’s not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016 but even with that Trump gained 12M votes between the two. Millions of people who sat out the 2016 election looked at those four years and decided Trump deserved another go. But Biden got nearly 19M more than Hillary did, and more importantly, got those margins in the correct states to make an EC win out of it.
It’s not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016
This is another area Hillary’s campaign fucked up, despite being very simple if looking at the larger picture.
The population increased like 16 million in that time.
So “turnout” when viewed as a total number makes it look like it constantly gets better. Hillary ignored that and chased beating Obama’s total votes out of pride rather than focusing on the electoral college to win.
So its best to use percentages, and 2016 was the lowest it’s been in 20 years, ironically enough, that was the other Clinton.
https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html
In 2020 it was like 2/3s of eligible voters who voted. But it’s a lot easier to motivate people to vote for someone solely because “they’re not a Republican” when the Republican is already in office. Especially when the challenger is telling everyone they’re going to fix all the shit the Republican is breaking.
But four years later after that didn’t happen…
And I don’t know how anyone can’t forsee a decline in turnout.
And just to be safe I’ll say it again:
Republicans only win when turnout is low, so we need to focus on increasing turnout
And poll numbers show Biden most likely won’t be able to match 2020’s numbers. Republicans tho…
Not many voted for trump in 2020 but won’t in 2024.
Well, the ones who died due to not following covid protocols. ;) And the ones in jail for 1/6.
While we’re being cynical, don’t forget it only matters in swing states and down ticket races.
The game isn’t “get people to approve of my performance.” The game isn’t even “get most people to vote for me.” The game is “get a marginal victory in a few states, because land matters more than people.”
And Biden - who has won elections for the past 40+ years - really understands this.
Which is why he is frustrated.
We have to be honest. Things really aren’t looking good.
Let’s not fool ourselves. Trump has a large, dedicated base willing to vote for him.
If turnout is high, his chances of winning are low. But with a low turnout, his chances are high.
A potential Biden voter staying home, because of low motivation to go stand in a line for hours - that’s the Republican winning ticket.
Which is why the conflict in Israel and stalemate in Ukraine are good for Trump, it de-energizes the Democrat base.
Perfect explanation ☝️
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans
What? Democrats don’t need to steal votes. Democrat voters outnumber Republicans but a fairly decent margin. It IS as you say: they just need people to vote. Which is why Democrats generally back voting by mail and early voting that Republicans try to stop.
I think your confusing me saying what the party has spent decades doing, and me saying it’s a good idea.
Clearly it’s not.
Because even if it gets a few in office, they’re unwilling to actually fix anything because it may piss off the hypothetical former Republicans that never vote D anyways.
A cynic would say party leadership is smart enough to understand this, and it’s all a lie to justify keeping donors happy. Because the party wants those donations and is banking on “what are you going to do, vote Republican?” To get just enough votes to win the election.
In reality it just makes the office cycle between the two parties. And Republicans break as much as they can, and Dems don’t fix it fast enough before Republicans get it back.
Resulting in a slow but consistent destruction of America, which further depresses turnout and keeps the cycle going on a long timeline.
Which could all be fixed by electing progressives willing to try as hard as they can, even if they fail
If we do that, then the wealthy donors stop donating. And current party leadership gets replaced.
Good luck convincing them to do that.
That was what givesomefucks was saying. Team Blue does not need any Team Red voters. They need Team Yellow and Team Green and Team No-Colour-Because-They-Stay-Home votes. But they keep reaching out to Team Red voters by shying to the Right in the stupid and hopeless quest to draw some of those voters over to their side, ignoring a much larger slice of people who don’t want our government slipping to the right. Of course, I have my theory – Team Green especially is horrible about staying home if they don’t get EXACTLY what they want. Team Red SEEMS to be the more reliable answer than Team Green, but they’ve already bought the propaganda that we’re all baby-eating, baby-f**king Satan worshippers over here on the Left.
This. Democrats are way better with ideas and policies that help working people, minorities, women, LGBTQ people, non Christians, and the middle class. Republicans only have tax cut for the wealthy and culture war hate.
I wish Biden were more progressive, but he is a good president. And Trump is a criminal who wants to be a dictator.
Biden is a good president? He is literally funding and supporting a genocide. The fact that the alternative is worse doesn’t make biden good.
I can’t think of a US president in my lifetime who shouldn’t have been tried and convicted by the ICC.
We’re Americans: We don’t get nice things. Especially government.
This. Democrats are way better with ideas and policies that help working people, minorities, women, LGBTQ people, non Christians, and the middle class.
Now if they would get out of their own way and pass some.
Biden has passed a lot of good policy: Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, Respect for Marriage Act, American Rescue Plan, and more. He has also put put fair judges on the bench and one of the supreme court. None of these would have happen under Republican control.
Democrats have blocked good policy as well. BBB and the minimum wage increase spring to mind. Democrats won’t end the filibuster to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights act. They didn’t end it to codify Roe. They won’t end it to codify Obergefell. They didn’t end it to support rail workers. Biden promised to revisit the public option during his campaign. Hasn’t bothered to try. And this is a pattern of behavior going back decades. Our own caucus killed the public option with no help from Republicans. We had a filibuster-proof majority and we still managed to find enough no votes. Even after the bill went to reconciliation and could have been passed with a simple majority, did we put the public option back? Of course we didn’t. Did we even try to? Nope.
Nothing stops Democratic policy like Democrats.
In that case theree’ no need to move right IR appeal to “centrist” voters so the Democratic cannidate can focus on turning out their base by throwing them red meat, right?
Despite the fact that it’s easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
Both of those are hard. Which is why Democrats focus on option three: convincing independent voters (who do not consistently vote D or R) to vote D this time.
Depends on the poll.
There are multiple polls showing him down vs. Trump in multiple key states that he HAS to win to get elected.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Im sure Joe has a mountain of people to interpret the numbers.
Truth is, numbers are bad. Just the other day there was an abysmal poll that showed people trust trump more on everything but behaving well and abortion. Not by a thin margin. I don’t know much about it, but It was reported on a reputable left wing network. It’s really not looking good for him and for the Democrats that have no backup plan. The right have succeeded to portray him as a frail senile incompetent man with corruption issues. It’s a failure of the democrat establishment.
Seriously though. Can we stop pretending like being 81 isn’t a liability? And a reasonable concern?
If Democrats had brains, they’d run a buff, tall white guy with progressive policies and a hot wife. Fascists follow strength and heteronormative values, so? Just use it against them. Trump only looks strong next to an 81 year old dude with a speech impediment. All love to Biden, but hang 'em up, bro, damn.
Guy can’t let go of the game even though the game let go of him.
To be fair, that one also has speech difficulty.
I’d like a refund on my government, it seems like it’s just a bunch of out of date, moldy, spoiled, cheese of some kind.
He’s said he will, if Trump isn’t nominated. I don’t think he ever planned to hold two terms.
Why is he magically the foil to trump?
Anyone else would lose the pro-Israel vote by denouncing genocide?
Condoning genocide and telling us we are doing great when we can see we are not might be impacting those numbers. He needs to drop out. And Dems refusing to demand their party offer up someone else are complicit when trump gets reelected
I don’t particularly like him either, but if he doesn’t run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected. Pick your poison. I’d rather Biden than Trump, so I want him to stay running and I’ll vote for him again.
Maybe you should vote for a write-in candidate if you feel that strongly about it? Just know that whatever you write, it will spell “Trump.”
I don’t think Biden should drop out.
I also don’t think Biden should be the automatic nominee. There should be a full primary election, and whoever wins that (maybe Biden, maybe someone else) goes to the general.
Biden has done a bunch of good stuff, but he’s also woefully out of touch on an absolute FUCKTON of issues that non-boomer voters give a whole hell of a lot of shits about. I am so fucking done with gerontocracy.
I also don’t think Biden should be the automatic nominee. There should be a full primary election, and whoever wins that (maybe Biden, maybe someone else) goes to the general.
So…exactly what is happening?
Not sure I understand. Is that a general question, or are you unfamiliar with the electoral terms that I used?
There is a full Democratic Presidential Nominee primary election happening this year. Biden is almost certainly going to be the nominee, but primaries/caucuses are happening in every state and there are other candidates (Marianne Williamson & Dean Phillips).
So exactly what you asked for is happening.
Not sure if you’ve ever paid attention to the US electoral process, but lately, the DNC and its leadership have definitely put its finger on the scales more than a bit in tons of recent elections. That interference has directly caused serious yet preventable failures in general elections multiple times, to the extent that the Democrats might have maintained their majority in the house if not for some wrongheaded influence in key races, and a total lack of support provided to some others.
…okay. What does that has to do with our conversation here?
If you had said from the start that you don’t like how the Democratic primaries are run or wish there were better candidates, great. I’d agree with you! However, that’s not what you said.
but if he doesn’t run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected.
Biden disagrees…
He just said a week or so ago that “at least 50 other Dems” could beat trump.
The polls disagree too, they show that Biden doesn’t have a very good chance against trump.
We ignored those polls in 2016 to run an unpopular candidate, and trump was elected.
The polls in 2016 showed Clinton beating Trump.
For popular vote nationwide…
State polls for battleground states was very concerning with a lot Dems took for granted had results for Clinton but margain of error showed a trump win possible.
That’s where Republicans focused effort, while Clinton was going to states like Cali on her preemptive victory lap
The thing was, pointing that out before the election got shouted down by moderates and you would be accused of wanting her to lose.
Pretty much what’s happening now with 2024…
The only polls that favored Hillary were ones that only polled her established demographic. NONE of them included the 18-34yo demographic, and heavily leaned female polling
An unpopular candidate that won the popular vote in 2016?
After boosting trump in the primary because she thought he was her easiest opponent…
She was willing to risk trump winning because it was her best chance to be president.
But even that wasn’t enough to get her in office due to her campaign team not understanding what the electoral college is and instead campaigning for the popular vote…
Which pretty much sums up why she’s so unpopular. She gambled with America and lost because she wanted to be able to say she got more votes than Obama.
Again, that’s something that would have happened organically because of constant population increase.
She was the favorite of the superdelegates/party darlings as well. Also she by far isn’t the only Democrat who helps the insane GOP candidates, that’s like a common strategy to give money to the insane fascist, a bunch of Dem campaigns do this.
She was so politically inept that she didn’t take the electoral college into account. This is what happens when party leadership decides the winner before the primaries. They nominate someone who runs a coronation parade instead of a campaign.
A generic Democratic Perry cannidate would be a safer choice. Draft a blue state governor or something
This is me caring about horse-race corporate news articles.
Did you hear about her emails?
Washington Post so badly wanted to get into the “Dems in disarray” game that they hired an author away from Politico.
Buttery males!
This is the best summary I could come up with:
After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it.
He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is running for the state’s open Senate seat, has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win her race if Biden is at the top of the ticket, according to people familiar with the conversations.
Adding to the challenging political landscape, Biden’s agenda hangs in the balance on Capitol Hill as his pleas to provide more aid to Ukraine and Israel are mired in partisan battles after the visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky failed to secure a breakthrough.
They routinely point to comments made by lawmakers, donors and pundits who declared Biden’s 2020 primary campaign over when he was routed in Iowa and New Hampshire before he went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Only recently, though, have Biden officials started to scale up the campaign, which they launched in April, after months of warnings from top Democrats in battleground states that they were too slow to build out their operation.
The original article contains 1,575 words, the summary contains 247 words. Saved 84%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
If I were to show a poll that indicates people hate heavy metal, but my poll criteria involved camping out next to opera houses, college theater groups, and retirement homes with the questions “would you rather watch a production of Lion King: The Musical or Corpsegrinder” I’ve technically polled multiple places, with multiple age groups and multiple ethnicities and backgrounds, but it’s a very heavily skewed poll because of how I went about filling those.
Which is basically a long winded way of saying poll numbers rarely mean shit, Go Vote.
Hard to post something less relevant. Thanks for contributing.
