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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • A peace officer, which is broadly defined and can include such people as local police officers and security officers of the state medical board, can inquire about a person’s citizenship and immigrant status if they think they have entered the U.S. illegally. If so, a magistrate can order them out of the country.

    How long until Latino Americans are stopped by police officers and have their citizenship papers demanded or else they’ll be arrested and threatened with deportation? How long until a judge railroads the case because they are convinced that Latino = Illegal Immigrant and the American citizen is deported?





  • I always have suspicions when I see “do you approve or disapprove of how X is handling Y polls.” Disapproval might mean that the person wants X to move to the left or to the right, but they are both labeled as “disapprove.”

    For example, say John wants Biden to withhold all aid to Israel until there’s a ceasefire. He would say he disapproves of Biden’s handling. But now say that Jim thinks the US should go in and bomb Gaza until nobody is left. He also disapproves of Biden’s actions.

    The fact that more people sided with Israel (47%-20%), thought that Trump would do a better job (46%-38%), and watched FOX News (13% vs second place CNN at 10%)leads me to think that this poll got a lot more Republicans than Democrats. This likely just shows “Republicans aren’t going to support Biden” rather than “Democrats are fleeing Biden.”

    Polls like this really need to include “do you want X to move more to the left or more to the right” in their disapproval questions. (Though likely phrased better than that.)


  • I definitely agree about the long term plan. The Republicans excelled at this. I hate the goal, but can admire how much effort they put into things like overturning Roe vs Wade. During the 50 year span, they had many, many setbacks. They didn’t just throw in the towel, though. They changed their goals, being temporarily satisfied with small steps backward instead of running an entire backwards marathon. And as they did this, they got closer and closer to their goal until they hit it. (Of course, their goal has now shifted to include much worse things.)

    Imagine if Progressives could harness this kind of planning for positive changes. As satisfying as it would be to elect a Progressive President with a Progressive Congress that would work together to make the courts Progressive as well, that’s not going to happen in 2024. Heck, it’s not likely to all happen in 2028 either.

    We need to step back, assess where we are, where we want to be, and make a plan for how we get there. “Just only vote for Progressives” sounds good on paper until you realize that, in many areas, Progressives would be unelectable. What happens if the Progressive can’t be elected and the Progressive Congress doesn’t come to be? If the entire plan is “just only vote for Progressives,” then it will fall apart quickly.

    If instead, the plan is “move the county one step to the left. And then another step. And then another step,” then we can make some real changes. Sure, they won’t come for years and it can be frustrating to wait, but this also means that change will come, it will be easier to recover from a misstep, and there won’t be as large of a backlash.

    (On this last point, one of the things I’ve noticed is that society tends to have a momentum to it that’s hard to change. If you try to change society too quickly, a backlash can result that can roll back many of the changes. Slow steady changes can wind up taking root a lot more than quick sudden changes.)


  • There’s also the “perfect is the enemy of the good” problem that I’ve seen a lot of Progressives display.

    They want a perfect, ideal candidate. They refuse to settle for anything less than perfection. The problem is that perfection isn’t attainable. If you name your “perfect candidate,” then someone will find a flaw with them. They then cease to be the perfect candidate anymore and must be ditched for the next “perfect one.” Meanwhile, the right just decides that their candidate is perfect regardless of any flaws (or perhaps because of what we’d call his flaws).

    Progressives will often threaten to rage quit politics if they don’t get 100% of what they want right away. They don’t seem to realize that doing this gives power to the Republicans. So we take five steps forward, Progressives rage quit because we didn’t take twenty steps forward, Republicans take over, and we take ten steps backwards. Now, did rage quitting put us in a better position? Of course not. But the perfect is held up as the only allowed outcome and Good isn’t good enough.



  • There have been rumors for years that he keeps a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside. He also has spoken glowingly of how various dictators keep their populace in line.

    Of course, by himself Trump is too clumsy to install a dictatorship. If it was just him, I’d predict a second Trump term would involve a lot of bad stuff, but no outright dictatorship as he’d get distracted by some Twitter/X/Truth Social feud.

    However, once you add in Project 2025 and similar people who would likely have roles in Trump’s second administration, then things get truly scary. They admire dictators too and they are capable of planning and executing the death of democracy.




  • And he’s also said that Jews (like myself) should be “grateful” for what he did for Israel.

    Assuming he actually did anything meaningful for Israel (which I’m not totally convinced of), there’s a big problem with this. I’m an American Jew - not an Israeli citizen. Doing something good for Israel doesn’t immediately impact me. I guess it gives me a place to flee if the US turns into Nazi Germany, but that’s not a really good selling point - especially when Trump is echoing Nazi talking points.

    “Hey, be grateful you have someplace to run to when I open the concentration camps” isn’t a line that makes me want to vote for a guy.

    The whole “we did something to benefit Israel so Jews should be grateful” is an anti-semitic trope and it’s insulting when the right uses it. (And it’s sad when people like my parents fall for it.)