The Morning Joe panel discusses recent 2024 presidential polling, including new NYT polling that has former President Trump leading President Biden in five swing states.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    538 and other forecasters had her at a 70-80% chance of winning.

    Oh, Nate Silver?

    The guy who was good at polls but then started letting his neoliberal opinions influence his analysis?

    Like, you realize that’s what you’re talking about about right?

    The polls didn’t say Hillary had a 70% chance of winning.

    Nate Silver analysis of polls said she had a 70% chance of winning.

    That doesn’t mean you ignore polls you don’t like, it means you stop listening to Nate Silver’s opinion.

    Like, if I jumped off a roof and broke my leg, I shouldn’t blame gravity, gravity did what it would always do.

    The issue was my analysis of gravity and the effect it would have on me from that distance.

    It doesn’t mean gravity is fake news and if enough people clap Tinkerbell will fly me to Never Never land.

    I’m sorry I can’t explain this in a way you can understand though, but if that didn’t work I honestly don’t know how to put it.

    • bolexforsoup@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      1 month ago

      Yes it was all Nate Silver. He was the only person with an election forecast saying she had a 70-80% chance. That’s right, that’s all I follow. No god but Nate. That’s why I didn’t say “and other forecasters.” Because I trust one source only and use it for everything ever.

      Jfc dude you’re just flinging shit and seeing what sticks at this point