I was responding to purely hypothetical odds that someone just made up, in which case things can be as complicated or simple as one wants them to be.

But even if I were making an actual prediction based on real statistical data, I am not sure why you would think that having an expectation of the approximate distribution of something given what we know about its statistical likelihood is “mistaking statistics for actual reality”.

If something has a 1 in 100M chance of happening to someone, you’d expect that about 80 people in the world now have had that thing happen to them.

Good parenting in the age of streaming platforms and social media is a frigging minefield. I’m not saying it should be easy, but it has entirely new challenges that didn’t exist for all of humanity before the internet. You can’t even ban your kids from the platforms to solve the problem because schools depend on YouTube for instruction, and work is done on Chromebooks that parents usually have no admin control over.

Again, not saying parents get a free pass, but the challenges are evident.

At least you didn’t call them IBMs

https://tellyspotting.kera.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/be102f-20170208-spinal-tap.jpg

The Big Shart

In other words, you don’t think it would improve anything.

So how about we think of something that won’t make it worse

That is, I guess, because it doesn’t actually know anything, even things it’s accurate about, so it has no way to determine if it knows the answer or not.

Sort of. He said he would rather vote Dem than Trump or Ramaswamy. That’s still something, but it does suggest he’d happily vote for Desantis, for example.

What question?

Okay buddy

You heard that message decades ago?

It’s just… the place where truly significant things can happen on that front is in the legislature, and they’re completely fucked. But people either put all the blame on the president, or if they recognize Congress’s role, they don’t appreciate that the Dems never had the numbers at any point during Biden’s term to do more than they managed to do.

An apt analogy would be: you are diagnosed with cancer, and you can choose to (a) go through treatment and have a high chance of survival, or (b) let the cancer run its course and die.

Voting third party in this country is equivalent to saying “I’m going to go to a faith healer instead”. You think you’re choosing a more appealing option but you’re actually just choosing option b.

It’s crazy how people view voting. In life we have so many situations where we look at realistic options and choose the best thing, or even the least bad thing, from those options.

But then with voting people feel like making their vote should be like wishing on a birthday cake. It’s totally irrational, as you say.

“Not nearly enough” for what?

The Republican Party has shown in so many ways that it does not believe in evidence-based policy. When a GOP politician talks about a faith-based policy, that’s because it’s not supported by evidence. It’s like that joke: “if alternative medicine worked, it would be called ‘medicine’”.

In your example that the GOP believes the government should be small, you’re buying their bad-faith boilerplate excuse for getting rid of things they don’t like. If they didn’t use this excuse, they’d have to give specific reasons why a program should be gutted or eliminated, and probably provide evidence as well. So they just say “small government”. But when there’s something they want, they happily expand the government and run up the deficit.

It makes perfect sense when you don’t think about it.

Isn’t it the fact that there will be features missing if someone doesn’t have iMessage? I genuinely don’t think anybody would care if it were just the color of the bubble that was different and nothing else.