Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they’re using to gather data I guess. Whether it’s the cold calling or what, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it’s even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don’t need to be right, you just have to feel like you’re right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn’t help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that’s not helping his case, although they’re short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. ‘Oh you’re overreacting’. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you’re anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn’t happen.
No I don’t think that’s accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn’t have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn’t exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn’t peacefully turn over power.
With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn’t work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn’t come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.
The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get.
Ever.
Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years and the most effective since probably Clinton. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but even if your silly little one-word retort is true that’s a big improvement on the past.
Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years
Oh yeah. Building Trump’s wall for him and funding genocide are super progressive.
Obama passed the ACA. That’s more progressive than everything Biden has passed put together. And no, that’s nothing to crow about either.
Obama also murdered people with drones and caved to Republicans when he had the power to pursue a more progressive agenda. He bailed out businesses instead of people. He did nothing about torturing prisoners of war. Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan. Obama was not by any stretch of the imagination a progressive. He was an okay President and a great orator, but his policies were conservative democrat.
Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan.
And yet it was more progressive than anything Biden has passed. Don’t give me this Biden progressive bullshit.
No, no, you don’t get it, if you let the fascists win this time, we’ll TOTALLY win next time. It’ll be Our Turn, or something.
“Everyone to my left is all the way to my right.”
I’m voting for Biden. He’s unpopular and the party’s messaging is dogshit, but I’m voting for him. You’re fooling yourself if you think our current messaging is going to bring in all the votes we need.
If the party expects us to believe that there will totally be discussion about what the party’s left wants this time, maybe there should have been some discussion the last three times they said that.
Basically my take. My view is that we need the old guard centrists to die off and we need to see more millenials and Gen z step into political positions.
It is of course a double edged sword. If you reformed the democratic party to actually adhere to current popular liberal progressive policies you would see a lot more shit getting done. But the millenials and Gen z Republicans are all cartoonishly evil and we are eventually going to have only maga qanon uneducated conspiratards making up the other political party.
The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.
The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.
Party leadershit makes sure the left never gets past the primaries. The loonies will win before that changes.
There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America. I believe in gun regulation, but if a candidate’s platform goes too hard on that they will lose MI and PA for sure. UBI? You better believe that’s a loser. Doesn’t matter how good the policy is, the messaging terrifies people.
I fucking love Bernie. That is a dude with integrity and heart. I wish he’d been elected. But he would’ve lost the general election (except maybe 2016 - I suspect only Hillary could’ve lost to Trump, but in hindsight it’s easy to say maybe we shouldn’t have taken the losing path). Candidates you love but can’t win aren’t going to help anyone. Biden has proven himself against Trump and no one else has. I’m damn sure happy he’s running.
There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America.
Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and your poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. You need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?
Who the hell is “you”? I’m not a Democrat if that’s what you think.
2020: “Elect Biden and once he’s POTUS then we can push him left!” … They never pushed him left.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don’t work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant “fudge factor” to make it look random. It’s not clear how there models really work and there’s no way to audit them.
A part of the problem with the ‘get through 24’ thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that’s functionally it’s own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who’s an ‘other’.
The rest of the problem with the “get through 24” message is that it will become “get through 28” the day after election day.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
I think this is the scenario Newsom has been preparing for.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
“He’s unelectable now”
Yes, I’m sure that not supporting Israel would have been much better for his election chances.
Like, have you paid attention to popular opinion on Israel at all these past 20 years?
Do you know what the US electorate looks like, or just what you want it to look like?
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Alright, first, this isn’t even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that’s been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).
Second, US popular opinion is nowhere near turned against Israel yet. Even amongst Democrats it’s an even split.
Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven’t so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it’s cool to be pro Palestine so that’s good enough for quite a few people.
I’m certainly not supporting Israel’s actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It’s like it never happened.
I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn’t need to exist anymore and it’s members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.
Hamas leadership isn’t in Gaza. How is attacking civilians in Gaza going to wipe out Hamas?
Don’t interpret me as saying I’m supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don’t. But after an attack like that I’d fully support military action in the area. You’re a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.
The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.
Again the response isn’t indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.
Now you tell me what it should be. It’s super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you’re likely full of shit.
I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I’m concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they’re talking about.
You’re correct but this is the first time it’s gone viral on tictoc. I’m not sure you’re understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he’s so poisoned.
You know, you’re not going to get very far in any conversation when you just keep saying “he’s unelectable now” over and over.
You’d think curiousaur would be too busy spending their lottery millions they get from their prognosticative powers to talk to us here on Lemmy.
The young people said they didn’t want Hillary and look what happened. Keep sleep walking.
you’re in an echo chamber bro
I’m not at all. It’s only the young people and Muslim voters who have turned on him, but that’s enough.
One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don’t. Most young ladies I work with vote.
The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren’t with him in the first place they’re just not voting for Trump.
But that’s my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.
Right, he needed to turn out those young voters who don’t vote currently, and now that’s not going to happen.
Yeah, Romney & Clinton were also “winning” at this point in their respective elections. The media wants a horse race.
Polls are garbage & Democrats have been beating them by 9+ points at the voting booth since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Biden has a $1B election warchest that hasn’t even been tapped into yet.
“Panic! Check back with us to see what’s happening!” —Media
Yeah, fuck that. Real journalism is happening, but it isn’t coming from MSM.
Good, the last thing we need is for people to get complacent and think Biden has this in the bag. People stay home when they think it’s a sure thing.
If anyone has watched the last 8-12 years, they’d realize polls exist solely to suck people into a false sense of security to manipulate the vote.
Ignore the fucking polls. GO VOTE. Vote in your local elections. Vote in the primaries. Vote in national elections. Polls are completely and utterly bullshit, just ignore them and GO VOTE.
They really need to restructure how they do polls in general to specifically address the fact that American politics are extremely polarized and kind of a shitshow at this point. All they’d need to do is to tweak the questions asked to include the context “in the election” as well as “in the general election”.
Biden’s definitely done some decent stuff, but he’s also done a bunch of stuff that I legitimately hate, as well as sandbagged and slow-walked a bunch of really crucial stuff. At the same time: there is no fucking way I will ever vote for a GOP candidate ever again after watching them become what they are today. The Republican party is, with complete seriousness, too far gone.
Centrists are just gonna dismiss any poll they don’t like. Gonna see a lot of that in this thread. “I imagine they only called landlines, therefore [vaguely ageist sentiment]!”; “The election’s a year away!”; “Clinton lost, so polls mean nothing!”
Generally speaking, you want polls to get better for your candidate, not worse. Even if all the flaws they imagine are present in every poll as part of a nefarious plot by multiple pollsters to make Biden look bad, the numbers shouldn’t be dropping relative to the last round of polls that were totally all rigged by the evil conspiiiiiracy of pollsters.
lol…. Polls.
People are so far gone with the lesser evil now we are just expected to endorse two choices of evil. Genocide enabling is evil. If Biden is the best shot on “Saving Democracy” Then it is already over. Dem messaging has been so disconnected from what issues people are dealing with yelling at people to go vote won’t cut it.
